Calgary Mayoral Polling Comparison: 2021 vs 2025

🗳️ Polling Comparison: 2021 vs. 2025

🔍 Key Observations

1. Farkas’s Resurgence
   • In 2021, Farkas was a strong contender but lost to Gondek.
   • In 2025, he leads most polls, with up to 34% support in Cardinal Research’s September poll (cardinalresearch.ca).
   • He retains 60% of his 2021 voters and has gained support from Gondek and Davison’s previous bases.
2. Gondek’s Decline
   • From ~40% in 2021 to ~14–16% in 2025.
   • Lower approval than rivals like Farkas and Davison (leger360.com).
   • Perception of Calgary on the wrong track is a headwind.
3. Emergence of Sonya Sharp
   • New 2025 contender at 10–17% with institutional backing.
4. High Undecided Rate
   • Up to 46% undecided in 2025 vs ~33% in 2021.
   • Signals potential for late shifts.
5. Top Issues in 2025
   • Lower taxes, fiscal restraint, poverty reduction dominate (leger360.com).

📈 Strategic Implications

• Farkas is well‑positioned but must consolidate undecided voters.
• Gondek must reframe incumbency as an asset to recover support.
• Sharp could overperform if undecided voters swing her way.
• Undecided bloc is the kingmaker—focus on mobilization and persuasion.

🧭 Ideological Spectrum Summary